Just wondering how you are all doing? Not good for the older demographic, especially if you're in some kind of institution. Living in Hong Kong, it (and the demonstrations previously) have been a part of my life for a while now. As an elementary teacher, I've been off school for a month and it seems we'll go back at the end of April. I now teach from home - on line.
We've done the mad rush for face masks and hand cleaning alcohol not to mention the bizarre rush for toilet paper! No food shortages now and people are starting to chill out a bit, so there is a danger of more local infections as people let their guard down. I got a lot of info from Wuhan in the early days and that was surreal.
I think Italy is probably the most realistic scenario for what will happen in democratic countries. I dread to think what will happen in 3rd world countries with no public health care systems in place. Anyway, stay safe, don't fall for the fake news etc, but don't underestimate it.
Last edited by lambada; 03/09/2008:24 PM.
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Just wondering how you are all doing? Not good for the older demographic, especially if you're in some kind of institution. Living in Hong Kong, it (and the demonstrations previously) have been a part of my life for a while now. As an elementary teacher, I've been off school for a month and it seems we'll go back at the end of April. I now teach from home - on line.
We've done the mad rush for face masks and hand cleaning alcohol not to mention the bizarre rush for toilet paper! No food shortages now and people are starting to chill out a bit, so there is a danger of more local infections as people let their guard down. I got a lot of info from Wuhan in the early days and that was surreal.
I think Italy is probably the most realistic scenario for what will happen in democratic countries. I dread to think what will happen in 3rd world countries with no public health care systems in place. Anyway, stay safe, don't fall for the fake news etc, but don't underestimate it.
I am more concerned about the Stock Markets at the moment. Living off Superannuation with a fair percentage in shares. (No longer living for free).
Here in good old Oz we have brawling in the aisles for a few rolls of toilet paper. Bring back the phone book I say.
Keep well
Tony
HP i7-4770 16GB 1TB SSD, Win 10 Home, Focusrite 2i2 3rd Gen, Launchkey 61, Maton CW80, Telecaster, Ovation Elite TX, Yamaha Pacifica 612 BB 2022(912) RB 2022(2), CakeWalk, Reaper 6, Audacity, Melodyne 5 Editor, Izotope Music Production Suite 4.1
Things are definitely going to get worse before they get better.
It would be nice if the administration stopped trying to muzzle the health officials and allowed them to speak freely. Honest assessments by people who actually know what they're talking about would be preferable.
"Hunches" and talk of "miracles" by misinformed bureaucrats aren't helpful.
My nursing home is on total lockdown meaning no visitors. Fortunately, I got out to see my wife on Sunday.
Canadians will know of Smokey Point just N of Maryville, WA where my eldest son lives. He flew home this morning and Smokey Point has had 8 related deaths as of yesterday. They have been combining clinics to try to contain the virus. It's especially affecting we older pharts.
If it gets in here, I'm dead!
Some of the staff is/are wearing masks.
It's impossible to find Lysol, hand sanitizer, particle masks, etc. The shelves are bare in Walmart, etc.
Well found Mario, does put a lighter spin on a difficult issue which at some point will affect most of us somehow.
Some time back I had six stubbies (small bottles) or Corona Beer and woke up a bit sick. I guess to avoid being sick from Corona one needs to be more temperate.
Tony
HP i7-4770 16GB 1TB SSD, Win 10 Home, Focusrite 2i2 3rd Gen, Launchkey 61, Maton CW80, Telecaster, Ovation Elite TX, Yamaha Pacifica 612 BB 2022(912) RB 2022(2), CakeWalk, Reaper 6, Audacity, Melodyne 5 Editor, Izotope Music Production Suite 4.1
It's the end of the tourist season here. If it can stay away from here for one more month I'll be very happy.
I read someone from the non-muzzled WHO predicting that about 70% of the population will get it, most mild, some will hardly know, and 2-3% possibly deadly.
Although I'm of the age group it affects, I doubt it will affect me that much if I get it. I rarely get sick, and when I do it's usually mild -- one cold every 15 years or so and I can't remember the last time I got the flu. Considering that I work the 55+ market here in Florida and have done so since 1985, they shake hands, hug, and kiss us too, it's a pretty good record.
I know the press is sensationalizing it. On the other hand I know it's serious for those vulnerable. So it's good to be informed and cautious.
Let's hope our brightest scientists come up with a vaccine soon.
Do you know what goes good with Corona?
Limón in the neck of the cerveza bottle.
Insights, incites and a lame attempt at humor by Notes
My nursing home is on total lockdown meaning no visitors. Fortunately, I got out to see my wife on Sunday.
It's impossible to find Lysol, hand sanitizer, particle masks, etc. The shelves are bare in Walmart, etc.
Any ideas for a good filter?
Don,
Don’t worry about any kind of mask or filter for yourself. Masks are primarily designed to keep someone who has an infection from passing it on. They are not really designed to keep you from picking up an infection. Besides, the very best masks require special fitting.
The administration of your nursing home needs to be vigilant in getting the employees to stay home if they are sick.
Where we are at right now from a Public Health perspective is it is an ill conceived notion that this is no different from seasonal influenza.
Seasonal Influenza spread is limited each year by the fact that (1) we have a vaccine against it, and (2) even though the antigens mutate each season there is still a certain amount of herd immunity that mitigates both the spread and the severity.
We have anywhere from 20,000 to 80,000 deaths from influenza each year. There would be more deaths except for the fact that when influenza sufferers develop pneumonia, they are put on ventilators in an ICU and pulled through the crisis. Take note of the fact that each flu season finds both emergency rooms and ICU resources somewhat overwhelmed by the number of infections.
The Corona virus. New virus. No herd immunity and no vaccine available for about a year. I was musing how our very definition of an epidemic alerts us to a problem well in advance of it arriving. An epidemic is when the number of cases is more than one standard deviation over the average. If you had zero cases before now, then a handful of cases is by definition an epidemic. That seems crazy unless you understand the math of an epidemic in a completely un immunized population.
I used to ask a question in an Epidemiology class that I taught. Would you sign a contract with me, for me to work for you for one month, with my starting pay at one cent a day, and the stipulation that you had to double my pay each day for a month? On day fifteen, my pay still looks pretty reasonable at $163.84. On day 20, it’s already looking less reasonable at $5,242.88. By day 30 I’m earning a whopping $5,368,709.12. This is the way a completely unmitigated infection moves exponentially through a population.
There have been descriptions of how the Italians went from preparation to crisis in their response to this virus. They completely cleared all departments of a hospital of cases that absolutely did not need to be there. Day one, the hospital was a virtual ghost town. Then a small population that grew to challenging, then became overwhelming. They became so overwhelmed that people over 65 or with underlying conditions were triaged out of the process and did not have resources wasted on them. That is the reality.
Don’t let anyone convince you that this is no different than the seasonal flu. It’s not, by a long shot.
Re: Possible vaccine. There is a company attempting a vaccine production shortcut based on a rather remarkable bit of bioengineering that would cut the production time to 3 months from 12 months. The company that is trying this is staking its whole economic future on the process because they have committed their entire financial worth to this one project. On one hand, it shows they have confidence but it could also prove to be a reckless decision.
Thank for your knowledgeable and well-informed analysis.
We are on day two of our lockdown and my son's area in Washington State is even in a worse condition which brings the matter even closer to my heart.
The worst-hit are we elderly whose immune systems are already tired and weakened.
As for sickened staff staying home - they generally can't afford to miss work so they attempt to hide it while they expose everyone to whatever they are carrying.
It's not the visitors that concern me, it's the poorly trained staff.
My late brother, Gordon, lived in Oregon and every time that Joanne and I would weekend down there ( from Seattle ) we'd catch the worst case of Blitz-Winehart flu imaginable. If we went North to Canada, it was the Labatt's Blue Flu.
Had a bit of a chuckle. Here in Oz we had a rush on toilet paper (and several other items) due to panic buying. This got to the stage where fights occurred in the aisles of supermarkets. The supermarkets limited the number of toilet rolls per person which created complaints.
Here we are not a week later and the latest complaint is the supermarkets are refusing refunds on toilet paper (and several other items purchased in panic buying.) as having overestimated requirements in panic buying is not a valid reason for a refund. (Tickled my fancy this).
Keep well all
Tony
HP i7-4770 16GB 1TB SSD, Win 10 Home, Focusrite 2i2 3rd Gen, Launchkey 61, Maton CW80, Telecaster, Ovation Elite TX, Yamaha Pacifica 612 BB 2022(912) RB 2022(2), CakeWalk, Reaper 6, Audacity, Melodyne 5 Editor, Izotope Music Production Suite 4.1
That's funny. Do they not plan on living long enough to use the amount of TP they bought? It's not like it is going to go bad or anything .. or that they will invent a newer better solution before you can use it .. Just don't but any for a while, you'll use it up .. or your kids will <grin>
I do not work here, but the benefits are still awesome Make your sound your own!
I am 72 and my wife is 75. I have mild COPD. Eva, my wife is in ok health.
I have to "assume" we will both die from this if we get it. I have cleaned the cars and the house with Clorox spray and wipes to better than hospital specs. Eva is a clean freak to began with so she just had a super fun time with all that cleaning.
I have very few real reasons to leave my house. If this gets really bad I will wear my hazmat suit I use to spray chemicals with my tractor to the super market. I am sure that will turn some heads....lol That is about the only place I need to go.
Because I live near the Florida keys I am always prepared with enough water and food for at least six months. Two gen sets and pumps to pump water for the toilet 300 gal of gas in the boat to put in the gen or the car.
We have goats and sheep and more chickens than we can eat. I stock a good bit of normal meds like antibiotics an pain meds both for the family and the live stock along with serious first aid stuff.
OH BTW I have plenty guns and ammo. I also have enough guitar strings not to run out for a couple of years.
If the internet goes down, no problem, I have a 200 watt tube guitar amp I am sure you will hear it...lol
I survived two years of Vietnam and I will get through this also.
EDIT: I lived for a long time before I ever saw toilet paper so I still remember what to do....
Last edited by Planobilly; 03/11/2006:18 PM.
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